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5.11 Tactical Kilts are Back

In May 2017 forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said the Atlantic has a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

This discussion has 2017 hurricane news and updates in the comments below. (Note: The most recent comments should be at the bottom and all comments updates are dated. Some older comments will be edited out so visitors don't have to wade through too many pages.)

As of 6-Oct-2017 7a ET...

Tropical Storm Nate is moving NNW near 14 mph (22 km/h) and a marked increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, reach the Yucatan peninsula early this eve, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight and approach the northern Gulf coast Saturday eve.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nate is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Even though Nate is not a powerful storm, the threat of storm surge, flooding and high winds are possible so people and business owners along the gulf from Louisiana to Florida should already have preps in place or get things in motion now.

If a major hurricane happens we typically start a new discussion but for now, stay current on AtlanticGulf and Pacific activity in below comments. Also follow USFRA on Facebook since we constantly share resources and updates there.

Keep in mind hurricane season runs from May/June through November so, if you live along the coast or know someone who does, use and please share these USFRA resources to learn how to prepare for hurricanes and storms:

Again please share these resources with others ~ esp. those along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

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20-Jun-2017 1400 EDT - NHC has upgraded Potential Tropical Cyclone Three to Tropical Storm Cindy, the third named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Satellite imagery, aircraft data, and surface observations indicate that system has acquired a well-defined center, located about 265 miles (430 km) south of Morgan City, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Warning continues along the coast from High Island, Texas, to the Mouth of the Pearl River, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch continues from west of High Island to San Luis Pass. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. On the forecast track, Cindy is expected to approach the coast of southwest Louisiana late Wed or Wed night, and move inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas on Thu.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before the system reaches the coast on Thu. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later today and spread westward within the warning area through Wed. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Wed. Total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, are expected over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. Amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thu. Storm surge inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is possible along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Get the latest on Cindy at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Cindy

23-Aug-2017 - Tropical Depression Harvey, a renamed storm in the Gulf NNW of Mexico's Yucatan, will be approaching the Texas coast late Friday causing several days of heavy rainfall across portions of eastern Texas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flooding so review and share above safety resources in original post.

As FYI, find resources and updates about Harvey's impact on Texas and Louisiana at www.usfra.org/group/disasterpreparedness/forum/topics/hurricane-har... 

3-Sep-2017 - Hurricane #Irma is still a long way away but, if you are along the Atlantic or Gulf coast, now is a good time to check and replenish your grab & go bags / kits, review your family plan with all your loved ones, ensure important papers are in a safe place (and have copies on a thumb drive or in the cloud), map out several evacuation options and check back here for updates. Also download & share a free 56-pg ebook with these preparedness tips and more at www.fedhealth.net/usfra.html

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5-Sep-2017 5a ET - Floridians and people along the Gulf coast should be getting prepared for some impacts from Hurricane Irma (see links above), but it's still too early to know the storm's track into the continental U.S. For now we'll post updates here but we may start a new discussion for Irma as we did with Harvey. Some key msgs from NHC...

5-Sep-2017 11a ET - NHC is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Storm Jose, the 10th named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. It's centered over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean about 1505 miles (2420 km) east of the Lesser Antilles.

Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and a movement toward the west or west-northwest at a slightly faster rate of forward speed is expected during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Jose could become a hurricane by Friday.

as FYI, Hurricane Irma has its own discussion over here

11-Sep-2017 5a ET - NHC says Hurricane Jose is weakening for now and expected to linger over western Atlantic for several days.

Jose is moving NNW near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn NE is expected tonight, with a reduction in forward speed. Jose is then expected to move slowly toward the E and SE Tue into Wed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).

We'll post updates if Jose circles and heads toward U.S. again.

Also find updates on Harvey and Irma.

15-Sep-2017 5a ET - per NHC #Jose was downgraded to a Tropical Storm (after it did a loop), but is forecast to become a hurricane again later today.

Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north is expected later today and on Sat.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect, but Jose is expected to produce high surf and life-threatening rip currents along U.S. east coast.

Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system here or at www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Jose

17-Sep-2017 5a ET - NHC is monitoring 3 systems in the Atlantic ...

Hurricane Jose (photo on right) is tracking N and hopefully will spin off to the NE will little impact on North America. Currently there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect, but be aware dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along Atlantic east coast.

Tropical Storm Lee is about 790 miles (1270 km) WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands, but Lee is expected to weaken to a depression on Tue so is not a threat to land.

Tropical Storm Maria (photo below this post) should become a hurricane later today and near Leeward Islands Monday night.

Maria’s projected path has her moving over areas already damaged by previous storms, and it is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches—possibly 20 inches in some areas—thru Wed night, causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. We’ll be posting updates here and on facebook as she moves closer or visit www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Maria

18-Sep-2017 8p ET - Hurricane Jose is still holding steady but passing well offshore of Delmarva peninsula tonight and Tue, and east of New Jersey coast Wed. Dangerous surf and rip currents expected to continue along the east coast. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Watch Hill to Hull, including Block Island, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson and from New Haven to Watch Hill.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area early Wed. Jose looks like he may get loopy again, but hopefully he'll spin out and fade away.

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Hurricane Maria has strengthened to a major Category 5 storm and is about 15 miles (25 km) ESE of Dominica and about 40 miles (70 km) north of Martinique. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and the core of Maria will move near Dominica and the adjacent Leeward Islands during the next few hours, then and approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tue night and Wed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, but some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter data is 925 mb (27.32 inches). Interests along the U.S. southeastern and eastern Atlantic coast need to get your preparations in order.

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20-Sep-2017 2p ET... NHC is monitoring 2 strong systems in the Atlantic:

Hurricane Maria is hammering Puerto Rico with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts.

Maria is a category 3 hurricane and is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The minimum central pressure based on the aircraft data is 961 mb (28.38 inches).

Tropical Storm Jose is still a strong and large system and thankfully is skirting by New England, but is causing dangerous surf and rip currents along the east coast for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

Keep an eye on Jose since it appears he may sit and spin off New England coast for days.

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